August 19, 2008

FACT: Crime Decreased in Montavilla after the Repeal of PFZ

Montavilla In Action states that "we the citizens around 82nd Avenue are having our safety compromised each + every day." Since prostitution between consenting adults does not directly compromise any bystander's safety (although it may be uncomfortable for them to witness it on the street), it must mean that the presence of prostitution is attracting other crimes. Is it true? Here's the chart based on Portland Police Bureau's numbers.

Remember, PFZ was terminated in September 2007, so datapoints before third quarter of 2007 represent the period PFZ was in effect; three most recent quarters (2007 Q4, 2008 Q1, and 2008 Q2) are for the post-PFZ era. As you see, there is no major increase in any crime category except for prostitution, and even that is still lower than the figure in some quarters during the time PFZ was in place.

When you look at all crimes, there were 169.86 incidents per month between January 2006 to September 2007, and 138.67 incidents per month between October 2007 and June 2008, which means that the crime went down by approximately 18% since the repeal of PFZ in Montavilla neighbourhood. No, we aren't saying that the repeal caused the decline--but it certainly didn't cause any incrase.

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